如何像美妆博主学习,来套路宏观经济考试作文?

今天讲一道2016年的干货真题

来自 CIE2016W21第4题：

2014年年底，全球投资者认为美联储将提升利率->

美元汇率上升->

这将如何影响美国国内经济和外部经济的影响？

这道题容易以各种形式！各种面貌！换汤不换药！地出现在paper 1的选择题里，Paper 2的Data Response案例简答题里，以及Paper 2 的长篇写作里！

这就是我常常跟学生们说的：要学会灵活思考，举一反三。

下回这道题很有可能变形，考：“汇率是由什么决定的？汇率下降有何影响？那么，如果中国央行下调利率，这将如何影响人民币汇率，如何影响中国国内经济和外部经济？”

因此你需要心里有个底稿，以备不时之需。

那么你的底稿的行文逻辑应该是什么样的呢？覆盖哪些内容呢？

A foreign exchange rate refers to the value of one currency in relation to another. It is the price of one particular currency expressed in terms of another. In a free market, exchange rates are determined by forces of demand and supply.

The demand for a currency is determined by the demand for a country’s exports that leave the country and the supply of a currency is determined by the demand for the imports which come into the country. As shown in Figure 1, equilibrium is established where demand and supply intersect, at a price of “p” and a quantity of “q”.

Interest rate is the price of money: the reward for saving and cost of borrowing. When there is an expected rise in interest rates in the US, flows of money will move from other countries into the US to take advantage of different rates of interest and hope to make a profit. As shown in Figure 2, demand for US dollar increases, causing an upward pressure on the US exchange rate.

---分割线---

其实答完上面这一段就能拿到满分了，假若你希望解释Supply左移导致的汇率上升的话，那么还需要补充接下来这一段：

A rise in US interest rate is a contractionary monetary policy, which aims at decrease aggregate demand. As interest rate goes up, consumer spending and firm investment both decrease, so aggregate demand curve will shift to the left. As aggregate demand falls, it might also cause a fall in import and a fall in the outflow of US dollars. As shown in Figure 3, supply of US dollar might decrease, creating another upward pressure on the dollar.

When the exchange rate rises, one unit of US dollar is able to exchange for more units of foreign currency. So imports become cheaper in terms of US dollar, while exports become more expensive in terms of foreign currency.

For the domestic economy, since imports are now cheaper, consumer will choose to purchase imported products over domestic products. Such a change is likely to result in a fall in demand for domestic products, shifting aggregate demand curve to the left. Lower aggregate demand may result in a rise in unemployment and a slowdown in economic growth. The general price level, however, may experience a positive impact, as inflationary pressure can be reduced if the economy is operating close to or at maximum capacity. In addition, because of lower costs of imported raw materials and imported finished products, aggregate supply curve would shift to the right.

For the external economy, a rise in exchange rate will affect the current account of the balance of payments, but the effect would also depend on several conditions. Firstly, the economy may undergo the reverse J-curve effect (此处你可以个图). In the short run, buyers need to take time to adjust their quantity purchased to price changes. In the long run, a rise in exchange rate may eventually increase imports and decrease exports, resulting in a fall in the value of net export. The expected changes will increase the surplus in the current account of balance of payments first, and then reduce surplus after time adjustment. Or we could state that the current account position will be improved first, then it will get worsened. 

Secondly, the Marshall-Lerner Condition needs to be taken into account when assessing the effect of a rise in the exchange rate on an economy. Price elasticity of demand is a key factor. The sum of the price elasticity of demand or exports and the price elasticity for imports needs to be greater than 1, so an appreciation or revaluation can worsen the balance of payments situation. 

In conclusion, an increase in US exchange rate could impact both the US domestic and external economy. Inflation might decrease, while unemployment would increase due to AD/AS interaction. Whether BoP surplus will be successfully reduced or deficit will be increased depend on both time and elasticity. Therefore, an overall effect could be positive in some aspects, but negative in others.